Crunch Time for Global Plastic Pollution: Can a Meaningful Global Treaty be Reached?

For developing the treaty against plastic pollution, adelphi has outlined three core objectives:

1. Reducing Plastic Production: Limiting the overall volume of newly produced plastic and progressively minimising it by 2040 to effectively reduce plastic pollution and contribute to achieving the 1.5°C climate target.
2. Promoting a Circular Economy for Plastics: Ensuring plastics are fully integrated into a circular system, requiring simple and safe recyclability. The treaty mandates binding technical standards and seamless information sharing along the value chain.
3. Eliminating Existing Plastic Pollution: Clean up and environmentally sound disposal of accumulated plastic waste, both on land and in water bodies.

During the second negotiation round, two main groups of states emerged: the "waste faction," which views plastic pollution as a disposal issue, and the "High Ambition Coalition," which also focuses on reducing plastic production. These divisions persisted through the fourth negotiation round, complicating agreements on measures to curb the production of primary plastic polymers. Nonetheless, progress was made in drafting the treaty, with two expert groups established to address financing mechanisms and hazardous chemicals in plastics.

Insights from Dr Per-Olof Busch on Expectations for the Fifth Negotiation Round

What has changed over the past two years of negotiations?

Awareness of plastic pollution has increased, but the negotiations themselves have seen little change. In Ottawa, conflicts were sharper, and the tone was harsher. Additionally, the number of countries opposing specific regulations has grown.

What successes can be celebrated?

So far, none. No decisions have been made.

In Ottawa, conflicts between countries advocating for an ambitious treaty and those focusing only on end-of-life plastic measures (e.g., waste management) were too severe. In Busan, challenges are likely, as the current draft text spans over 70 pages and contains 3,500 brackets indicating unresolved issues. States must determine whether the text reflects their perspectives. The negotiating chair's proposal for a simplified text may help, but there are mixed signals about its acceptance. Furthermore, procedural rules have yet to be adopted, complicating decision-making.

If the widely discussed possible outcome—a framework agreement—is achieved, the minimum goal would have been achieved. However, since specific commitments would then require further negotiations, combating plastic pollution would be delayed. This would be extremely worrying in view of extent of this environmental crisis in terms of negative environmental and health impacts.

What are adelphi’s post-INC-5 tasks?

This largely depends on the outcome of INC-5. If negotiations continue, adelphi will remain engaged, for instance, through the PROMAR project supporting the Dominican Republic and Costa Rica. If an actionable treaty is achieved, adelphi would support the development of national plans, reporting, and monitoring.