Trump's Return to the White House: New Challenges for US and Global Climate Policy

With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the US now faces a worrying shift in climate and environmental policy. Radical changes to domestic policy have been promised, and formidable challenges loom for international climate diplomacy and German climate foreign policy.

The US Presidential Election has delivered Donald Trump with a strong lead, with initial outcomes indicating that his return to office, alongside Republican majorities in Congress, are all but inevitable. The United States now stand on the brink of a profound shift in its domestic and foreign policies.

adelphi Director and Head of Climate Policy Dennis Tänzler warns that on the domestic front, Trump seems highly determined to reject any commitment to climate action, aiming to drastically weaken or even abolish key federal institutions dedicated to environmental policy, in an opinion piece published in the Frankfurter Rundschau. 

Trump’s domestic energy agenda is summarised strikingly by the slogan “drill, baby, drill!”, with promises for massive expansions of oil and gas extraction and a revival of the coal industry. He has announced plans to declare a “national emergency” at the start of his term in office to remove bureaucratic hurdles for new drilling, pipelines, and power plants. 

Internationally, a Trump presidency presents a series of challenges for international climate diplomacy. Trump is likely to exit the Paris Agreement again at the earliest chance, a process that would take one year to come into full effect. This already creates new strains on international negotiations as countries gather next week in Baku for COP29 in Azerbeijan, with urgently needed updates to long-term climate financing very difficult to fulfil without US backing.

New obstacles also loom for German climate foreign policy. The US, a key partner in diplomatic engagement over the past four years, may withdraw from this role – and the EU currently shows little sign of being able to fill this diplomatic gap alone. As a result, building climate alliances and partnerships focused on decarbonisation with like-minded partner countries, including emerging economies, will be more important than ever.

Despite the prospect of a second Trump presidency, adelphi remains resolute in its commitment to a fair transition to carbon neutrality. The organisation will continue to focus on developing solutions to address the most urgent challenges posed by climate change, environmental degradation, and resource depletion working closely with our committed clients and partners.