A Climate Policy Nightmare Looms in the USA

The upcoming election will not only shape U.S. climate policy but also challenge global climate diplomacy and German foreign policy. On 6 November, it will be decided whether we enter a new era of hope or experience a regression into chaos. 

In just a few days, when the U.S. population has voted and the ballots are counted, some of the worst fears regarding climate policy might come to pass. The return of Donald Trump to the White House would be more than a bad déjà vu – particularly if the Senate also falls into Republican hands. 

Eight years after his first successful election, Trump seems more determined than ever to reject any commitment to climate action, aiming to drastically weaken or even abolish state institutions, like the Environmental Protection Agency, that could play a role in helping American society tackle the climate crisis. The handling of recent hurricanes Helene and Milton stands as evidence – misinformation replaced the necessary support for crisis response. All of this is laid out in the so-called Project 2025 by the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation, which aims for a massive concentration of power in the presidency. Trump’s campaign team has denied any formal connection to the plan, yet some elements have surfaced in his campaign.

The initiatives launched over the past four years to decarbonise, especially the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), face challenging times ahead. And yet, the outlook for climate policy in the U.S. is almost more promising than on the global stage. Renewable energy has continued its advance in the U.S. over the past decade, even under the Trump administration. No region or state seriously intends to opt out of the IRA’s incentive system, as investments and jobs reflect core interests for every sub-national government. Many business players have welcomed the IRA and aligned their investments accordingly. Therefore, it’s possible that the expansion of climate-friendly energy sources will continue even under a Trump administration, albeit perhaps under a different name. However, the submission of an updated climate plan through 2050 seems unrealistic. It’s also expected that the U.S. will continue to expand fossil fuel exports even more than in the past four years.

Concerns for global climate diplomacy

This is one of the reasons why the outlook for global climate diplomacy is almost catastrophic. The decade since the successful conclusion of the Paris Climate Conference has underscored how crucial the constructive participation of the U.S. – especially in cooperation with China – is for global negotiations. Given the massive geopolitical rifts and shifts, it’s difficult to imagine how an ambitious alliance of key greenhouse gas emitters could be maintained without the U.S. Unlike eight years ago, there’s no room for further delay on the emission reductions that need to be achieved by 2030. 

By 2025, all countries are expected to present an ambitious update to their climate plans, and expectations are high. Furthermore, upcoming negotiations in Baku aim to establish long-term goals for climate finance, involving trillions of dollars and potentially requiring contributions from countries like China for the first time. This scenario seems unlikely if the Trump administration, as announced, withdraws from the Paris Agreement again. 

A victory for Kamala Harris on 6 November would, unsurprisingly, make things easier, though it would not make climate policy entirely straightforward. Climate ambitions were barely highlighted during the campaign – likely for tactical reasons. Despite massive destruction from the hurricane season, the potential solutions offered by climate policy measures have hardly featured in the debates. The IRA’s measures are being presented as economic and social success stories. Difficult debates also await on the international stage regarding contributions to international climate financing, an area in which the Biden administration fell short of its own promises. Considering the likely power dynamics in the U.S. Congress, securing funding will not be any easier under President Harris.

Where does Germany stand?

These possible developments will also present greater challenges for German climate foreign policy. The U.S., a key partner over the past four years, may withdraw from this role – and the EU currently shows little sign of being able to fill this diplomatic gap alone. Further blockages in international negotiations loom. Climate alliances and decarbonisation partnerships with emerging economies will thus become even more important. Cooperation with individual states in the U.S., to the extent they actively resist Washington, could also be crucial in helping to fill the diplomatic gap that the German government might otherwise leave. These partnerships will need to deliver significantly more than before until the potential American nightmare finally comes to an end.

This opinion piece first appeared on 1 November 2024 in the Frankfurter Rundschau.