Migration in the face of global environmental change: both a problem and a solution

The UK Government Office for Science conducted a research project to develop scenarios concerning environment-related migration and published its findings on 20 October in a comprehensive final report. The report, entitled “Migration and Global Environmental Change – Future Challenges and Opportunities”, analyzes the impact environmental change will have on global migration flows over the next 50 years. adelphi produced a review for the report on the policy options available for small island states in view of the rising sea level.

The next 50 years will see an increase in global migration flows. In addition to political, social and economic factors, environmental change will also have an impact. If the global population continues to grow at its current rate, this could lead to resource bottlenecks. At the same time, controlled migration has the potential to both alleviate problematic situations in a migrant's place of origin and have a positive impact on the receiving population.

The UK Government Office for Science conducted a research project on global environmental migration, investigating migration patterns and how they were influenced by environmental change. The findings were compiled in a final report, which was published on 20 October. The authors establish that there are five “migration drivers”: political developments, environmental change and a country’s demographic, economic and social situation. It is very rare for just one of the five drivers to play a decisive role in migration decisions; the environmental driver will gain in significance due to the impact of climate change. Environmental change can, however, also constrain migration. Individuals or groups whose fertile land has been destroyed or depreciated often have less financial capital and fewer resources to migrate. The report's key conclusions included a recommendation to proactively integrate migration issues into negotiations concerning climate change adaptation and related projects at national and international level.

A total of 350 experts from 30 countries contributed to the final report. adelphi managed a review of policy options for small island states in view of the rising sea level.

The final report is available here:
www.bis.gov.uk/foresight…