Navigating Peace in a Changing Climate: Climate and Security Trend Analysis

The climate crisis poses direct threats to peace, security, and defence both within the European Union (EU) and around the globe, demanding urgent multilateral action. Following the adoption of the EU's Joint Communication on the climate and security nexus, which establishes an enhanced framework for addressing climate change and environmental degradation as a threat multiplier, this report identifies five pathways through which climate change exacerbates security risks. These pathways will continue to shape the complex interplay between environmental degradation, climate change, and security in the years ahead, necessitating effective action from the EU. The report is authored by adelphi global and draws on recent research in climate, environment, peacebuilding and security, integrating insights from different scientific disciplines.

This report’s findings derive from a mixed methods approach that offers a clear advantage in studying climate and security interactions across different time scales, avoiding overreliance on models trained on historical data. The analysis centres on five core pathways on which policymakers need to focus to accurately assess climate risks in the coming years. These core pathways are analysed with a comprehensive range of risk determinants including vulnerability and resilience. The five pathways are as follows:

• Water governance, food pricing and natural resource management: Climate and environment aggravated scarcity of water, food or land will further exacerbate social and political tensions, resource conflicts, and disrupt agricultural production, disproportionately affecting vulnerable communities and import-dependent nations. However, international cooperation in water governance and sustainable agricultural practices such as agroecology, will offer opportunities to mitigate these risks and foster resilience.
• Migration, displacement and livelihoods: Climate change will continue to disrupt both livelihoods and human mobility, affecting communities across all sectors of the economy, straining urban governance and social cohesion. Without robust governance and investments in infrastructure, rapid urban growth will increase socio-political tensions. Supporting resilient livelihoods, building social cohesion and improving rural-urban connectivity will be critical to addressing these challenges.
• Energy transition, decarbonisation risks and critical minerals: While global climate commitments on net-zero emissions are growing, achieving a just energy transition will require balancing geopolitical complexities and critical mineral demands with equitable socioeconomic considerations to prevent new forms of inequality and vulnerability. Ensuring conflict-sensitive supply chains and inclusive economic policies will be critical to achieving a just and sustainable energy transition.
• Environmental degradation, biodiversity loss and environmental crime: Climate change, environmental degradation, and biodiversity loss will continue to drive a destructive feedback loop in fragile regions, whereby ecological decline amplifies security threats and illicit economies, disproportionately affecting Indigenous Peoples and local communities. Urbanisation, resource overuse, and environmental crimes will exacerbate instability, migration, and inequality and require adaptations in security and defence policy. Inclusive environmental restoration, investments in climate-resilient development, improved civilian military coordination and measures strengthening the fight against environmental crime are key to building resilience to these risks.
• Global governance, financial reform and climate justice: Transparent and accountable governance at both national and global levels will be crucial for managing climate and security threats. As the effectiveness of climate action and financial decisions impact government legitimacy, the one billion living in fragile and conflict-affected states will bear the highest costs of insufficient action.

Though the challenge is daunting, there are clear pathways forward. Success will depend on moving beyond traditional approaches, to embrace inclusive, conflict-sensitive climate action that recognises the unique needs of vulnerable communities. Beyond responding to challenges to European defence, resilience and adaptation, climate and security risks require support from the EU to lead global efforts on decarbonisation and stabilisation. By strengthening inclusive governance at all levels and addressing disparities in climate finance for fragile states, climate action can serve as a vehicle for peacebuilding rather than a source of new tensions. The EU must pursue a comprehensive policy agenda that includes:

• Enhanced Climate Finance and Justice for Fragile States
• Strengthened Multilateral Partnerships
• Integrated Urban Resilience
• Environmental Protection and Restoration
• Conflict Sensitivity in the Green Transition
• Evidence-Informed Migration and Displacement Policy
• Social Cohesion and Community Resilience