From ambition to implementation: delivering the energy transition and industrial transformation in 2026
Insight by Sandra Ghosh, Susanne Lein
The climate crisis poses direct threats to peace, security, and defence both within the European Union (EU) and around the globe, demanding urgent multilateral action. Following the adoption of the EU's Joint Communication on the climate and security nexus, which establishes an enhanced framework for addressing climate change and environmental degradation as a threat multiplier, this report identifies five pathways through which climate change exacerbates security risks. These pathways will continue to shape the complex interplay between environmental degradation, climate change, and security in the years ahead, necessitating effective action from the EU. The report is authored by adelphi global and draws on recent research in climate, environment, peacebuilding and security, integrating insights from different scientific disciplines.
This report’s findings derive from a mixed methods approach that offers a clear advantage in studying climate and security interactions across different time scales, avoiding overreliance on models trained on historical data. The analysis centres on five core pathways on which policymakers need to focus to accurately assess climate risks in the coming years. These core pathways are analysed with a comprehensive range of risk determinants including vulnerability and resilience. The five pathways are as follows:
Though the challenge is daunting, there are clear pathways forward. Success will depend on moving beyond traditional approaches, to embrace inclusive, conflict-sensitive climate action that recognises the unique needs of vulnerable communities. Beyond responding to challenges to European defence, resilience and adaptation, climate and security risks require support from the EU to lead global efforts on decarbonisation and stabilisation. By strengthening inclusive governance at all levels and addressing disparities in climate finance for fragile states, climate action can serve as a vehicle for peacebuilding rather than a source of new tensions. The EU must pursue a comprehensive policy agenda that includes:
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