Climate, Peace and Environmental Resilience in the Asia-Pacific Region

From rising sea levels to intensifying competition over natural resources, climate change is posing critical threats to peace, stability and development across the Asia-Pacific region. Despite increasing climate-related security risks, international discussions have often overlooked the region’s experiences and expertise. This report seeks to address that gap.

Home to approximately 60 per cent of the global population, the Asia-Pacific region faces some of the most diverse and complex climate-related security risks globally. Regional cooperation will be essential to avert the worst impacts of the crisis on populations. In addition, tackling shared risks in solidarity provides a key opportunity to enhance the Asia-Pacific region’s collective strength.

Supported by the Republic of Korea, this report analyses climate-related risks to peace, stability and development across five key subregions: Pacific Island Countries, South Asia, Central Asia and Afghanistan, Southeast Asia, and East Asia. It identifies both region-specific and cross-cutting entry points for action, offering a practical framework to enhance climate, peace and environmental resilience across the Asia-Pacific region.

Key insights include:

1. Pacific Island Countries
   1. Land availability and usability are threatened by climate change, particularly by rising sea levels, with risk of submergence.
   2. Disasters are costing billions in economic damages, with climate and environmental hazards expected to significantly undermine incomes.
   3. Climate-induced migration and displacement are increasing, with relocation likely necessary for significant numbers of Pacific Islanders.
2. South Asia
   1. Climate change, environmental degradation and political tensions could exacerbate competition for transboundary resources, straining fragile interstate relations and risking conflict.
   2. Changing weather patterns are creating significant, adverse effects on agricultural sectors, undermining livelihoods and food security.
   3. Climate-induced migration and displacement will continue to rise, with migrants and IDPs facing further risks.
   4. Uptakes in critical mineral mining could boost economies but also drive instability and insecurity.
3. Central Asia and Afghanistan
   1. Climate change, environmental degradation and infrastructure decay are increasing competition for transboundary water resources, leading to conflict.
   2. Changing river flows, drought, and other climate and environmental hazards are likely to severely impact agricultural sectors, undermining livelihoods, food security and increasing migration.
   3. Climate and environmental impacts on livelihoods could see farmers turn to illicit economies, fuelling insecurity and conflict.
   4. Critical mineral reserves hold potential for economic development as well as geopolitical, social and environmental risks.
4. Southeast Asia
   1. Extreme weather events are likely to affect millions annually, seeing knock-on security impacts in fragile and conflict-affected contexts.
   2. Increased temperatures, environmental degradation and exploitation could increase conflict over fish stocks.
   3. Reductions in water availability in rivers could see widespread impacts on livelihoods and food security.
   4. Critical mineral production threatens adverse social and environmental impacts.
5. East Asia
   1. Extreme weather events and disasters are likely to increase regionally, with the greatest risks for the most vulnerable.
   2. Critical mineral supply chains, necessary to fuel the green-energy transition, can also present challenges.

The report outlines three priority action areas to enhance climate, peace and environmental resilience across the region at large:

1. Ensure strategies to develop climate, peace and environmental resilience are tailored to local, national and subregional contexts.
2. Promote interstate cooperation to overcome climate-related risks and enhance regional strength.
3. Broaden the approach to climate-related risks and actions to overcome them in international institutions.