Climate Change and Security in the OSCE Region

How climate change will have an impact on security and stability in the OSCE regions will depend on the development and interaction of a number of key trends. Demographics, urbanization and growing resource demands are important, underlying driving forces that will shape these challenges. At the same time, a number of critical uncertainties will gain in importance over the next 50 years.

This report summarizes and analyzes the results of the scenario workshops, the expert roundtable on the Arctic and the literature review on the Southern Mediterranean. Firstly, it outlines the outcomes and findings of each scenario exercise, the expert roundtable on the Arctic and the literature review on the Southern Mediterranean. Secondly, based on a comparative analysis, it identifies key challenges across scenarios, categorizing them as driving forces and critical uncertainties depending on the degree of uncertainty as to how these trends might develop over the next 50 years. The third chapter outlines strategies and reflections. The focus was on developing strategies for the OSCE and the EEA. Based on a comparative analysis of the scenario workshops, the expert roundtable on the Arctic and the literature review on the Southern Mediterranean, it proposes a number of general strategic and organizational reflections. The aim was to identify robust strategies that work across scenarios.

See also the connected reports on Environment, Climate Change and Security in the Arctic and Environment, Climate Change and Security in the Southern Mediterranean