Climate, peace and security assessment: Mali

Mali is experiencing both rising insecurity and significant climate variability. Violent conflicts take place especially in Gao, Kidal, Timbuktu, Mopti, Ségou, and, increasingly, in southern and western regions. Over the past decades, the country has been exposed to substantial inter-annual and decadal rainfall variability as well as increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. In the future, climate change impacts will put significant additional pressure on natural resource-based livelihoods, gradually limiting people’s ability to adapt.

Focus on political and security developments

Outside Mali, attention has tended to focus on political and security developments in the wake of the military coup of August 2020, the announced withdrawal in 2022 of French troops from the Operation Barkhane counter-terrorism mission, and – most recently – alleged massacres of suspected jihadis by the Malian military and foreign mercenaries.

Weak governance

However, the country also experiences wider political, economic, and social challenges. Among a complex set of drivers of conflict dynamics in Mali, poor governance and structural socio-economic exclusion and marginalisation play important roles. Weak governance is both a cause and con- sequence of conflict: people often experience the state as corrupt, exploitative, predatory, and rent seeking; insecurity reduces state presence and service provision even further.

At the same time, livelihoods are increasingly difficult to sustain. The problem is caused by recession, inequality, insecurity, corruption, social exclusion and policies that erode rather than enable coping strategies. These dynamics enmesh with significant demographic changes in the form of population growth, urbanisation, a shift towards sedentarisation, and movement in search of economic opportunities.

Against this backdrop, there is growing attention to the ways climate and conflict interact in Mali. However, there has been a lack of contextual evidence of specific risks, while concerns have rightly been raised that climate-related security risks could be used to avoid tackling wider issues of governance, exclusion, and marginalisation.

7 recommendations for climate, peace and security in Mali

In conclusion, the new Mali report makes recommendations to the Malian government, civil society actors, donors, international non-governmental organisations, UN agencies and the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA).

1. Improve collection and sharing of climate data
2. Raise awareness of conflict-sensitive climate adaptation
3. Improve inclusivity, accountability, and responsiveness of governance and security provision, particularly around natural resource management
4. Prioritise building climate security resilience in southern Mali
5. Encourage agro-ecological, climate-smart, and conflict-sensitive practices
6. Ensure ongoing and inclusive integrated climate security assessments of Mali
7. Strengthen government, military and civil society capacity to support populations, particularly those socially excluded, to adapt to climate security risks