Context matters: A review of the evidence of how social, economic, and other variables influence the relationship between climate and security

This paper reviews the empirical evidence of how economic, social, political, legal, environmental, demographic, and military-strategic factors influence the relationship between climate and security.

The links between climate and security are usually indirect and involve different pathways. Among others, these pathways may include the degradation of climate-sensitive natural resources and the loss of livelihoods that depend on these resources; disputes over access to these resources; displacement of people and animosity towards migrants; food insecurity and food price hikes that lead to political tensions; grievances related to poor disaster response and management by responsible agencies and organisations; or unintended consequences of climate and environmental policies.

Specific conditions or moderating factors influence how these pathways will manifest. Depending on these conditions, people will be more or less vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and to their possible knock-on effects on livelihoods, conflict, and displacement.

Based on our review of more than 150 studies, and considering these different context factors, we identify key recommendations that shape climate-security dynamics across the globe:
 

This paper builds on insights from the ‘CASCADES’ project under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, as well as of the German Federal Foreign Office-funded project ‘Climate, Peace and Security’.