Scenarios for climate change and international security in Eastern Europe

The consequences of climate change are unfolding with increasing rapidity. Preventive measures and early actions are necessary to avoid negative impacts. However, there is only limited knowledge on actual impacts, making responses difficult to plan. Drawing up possible scenarios may support decision-making by highlighting the potential range of risks and mitigating actions which can be taken in response.

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) therefore organised a scenario development workshop in Eastern Europe to identify the potential security implications of climate change in this region. adelphi supported the OSCE in preparing and hosting the workshop.

These activities were part of a larger project jointly implemented by the OSCE and the European Environment Agency. The aim of the larger project was to generate policy recommendations for the respective member states with a view to mitigating the worst consequences of climate change.