Weathering Risk: A Climate and Security Risk Assessment

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Janani Vivekananda

Head of Programme Climate Diplomacy and Security

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Science provides an increasingly detailed understanding of the biophysical consequences of climate change, but we still face gaps in our understanding of what these will entail for peace and security. Weathering Risk allows policymakers and practitioners to face these risks, and pilots climate-informed peace operations to find sustainable solutions.

Weathering Risk helps tackle one of the most significant foreign policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change. The initiative produces scientific analyses of climate-linked risks to peace and security around the world. These inform tools to increase decision-making capacity, as well as a series of dialogues and trainings for policymakers and practitioners. A practical peacebuilding component tests and evaluates climate-informed peace operations in the field, to find out what works and better integrate climate-security analysis into peace-making.

Climate change is a risk to peace. Evidence-based responses will help weather the storm.

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Scientific climate-security analysis to support peace and stability

The findings of Weathering Risk are relevant to a range of strategic and operational settings. They also inform various climate change, foreign policy and security processes, such as UN climate change conferences, the G7 and the UN Security council.

Most important to me is (...) improving early warning systems and our early response capabilities, as well as strengthening the resilience of vulnerable sectors and institutions. - Antje Leendertse, former State Secretary, German Federal Foreign Office

Weathering Risk is guided by a Strategic Advisory Board of 13 leading figures in development, environmental, foreign and security policy.

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Strategic Advisory Board Weathering Risk

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To the member overview

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An integrated approach for climate risk and foresight assessments

The interdisciplinary Weathering Risk team has developed a replicable climate security risk and foresight assessment methodology that identifies direct and indirect risks related to climate change. A mixed methods approach combines cross-sectoral climate impact modelling, machine learning and data analysis with stakeholder-focused methods and qualitative approaches, including interviews, consultations and scenario co-development. This methodology assesses, models and tracks a broad range of biophysical, socioeconomic and political impacts of climate change, their interplay, as well as possible entry points for preventive action.

Forward-looking and flexible, the assessment methodology can be applied to various geographies and depths of analysis, giving the climate-security community of practice an effective approach for assessing risks and identifying entry points for action.

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Die Weathering Risk Methodology

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Access the paper

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an infographic explaining the weathering risk methodology

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The first phase of Weathering Risk was a three-year, multilateral pilot project led by adelphi and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

In the first phase of Weathering Risk, an analysis and foresight methodology was devloped and applied to a series of case studies, generating new insights into priority regions and thematic areas of the climate-security nexus. The second phase of the initiative will continue and scale up the work of phase one by offering tailored evaluations and analyses of policies and existing capacities, to support additional implementing partners in operationalizing the analysis within their institutional policies and strategies and pilot climate security risks-informed projects.

Additionally, through the Weathering Risk Peace Pillar, a consortium of peace-making practitioners are designing, piloting and evaluating climate-informed peace programmes across a range of different geographic contexts and conflict types. This ensures that the analytical approach of Weathering Risk is translated into peace-making action in the field.

Fields of Action

Climate Diplomacy

Climate & Security