Exploring migration, habitability and climate change in the future – scenarios for Africa and Asia
Insight by Emily Wright O'Kelly, Tobias Bernstein
News publ. 21. Dec 2012
Regionally specific conflict dynamics will play a decisive role in in- or decreasing the security risks of climate change creating a need for early and comprehensive adaptation, conflict preventative measures, and regional cooperation. This is the outcome of a series of four scenario workshops on the potential security impacts of climate change in the OSCE regions.
The workshops were part of a joint project of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the European Environment Agency (EEA). adelphi supported the project by providing a scoping study to identify priority issues and developing the workshop methodology. Its staff also facilitated three of the four workshops which covered Eastern Europe, South-Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the South Caucasus and brought together local and international experts on environment and security issues as well as government representatives and non-governmental organisations.
The goal was to develop scenarios on how environment, climate change and security might interact in each of the regions until 2050. In addition to regionally specific conflict dynamics such as Nagorno Karabakh in the Caucasus and Afghanistan in Central Asia, water, food and energy security were at the centre of the discussion in all regions. Food security was the main issue identified in the scenarios covering Eastern Europe. Water security was a major driving force in South-Eastern Europe, while the scenarios on Central Asia and the South Caucasus emphasised the challenges of compound crisis affected the water, agriculture and energy sectors at the same time.
The better case scenarios clearly showed that early and comprehensive adaptation as well as the management and resolution of conflicts and increased regional cooperation will be the key to manage the challenges. Thus, the scenarios do not only provide a common perspective on the problems facing each region but can also serve as a common vision for the future.
Scoping study:
http://www.adelphi.de/fi…
Scenario reports and background paper:
http://www.adelphi.de/fi…
http://www.adelphi.de/fi…
http://www.osce.org/eea/…