Hydro climatic modelling for developing scenarios of future water availability under climate change conditions for the Juba River basin

The Juba Basin is coined by uncertain precipitation patterns, which make the water management a lot more complicated. Previous studies show that this problem will be amplified as the future development of water availability in the region is decisively shaped by climate change.

To tackle this issue, adelphi has helped the Ministry of Energy and Water resources of the Federal Government of Somalia in developing a sound understanding of the expected climate change impacts and the future water availability through hydro climatic modelling and Scenario Development. The investigation of the potential impacts of the climate change impacts focuses on the hydrological regime of the Juba River. 

The generated data cover the time period from 1971-2100, with a daily resolution, to assess climate change impacts in the future. Compared to flood forecasting systems, this approach focuses less on forecasting extreme events in the near future, but provides risk assessment and information for strategic long-term planning of adaptation measures such as irrigation systems, improved land management and dams.

adelphi has more than 20 years of experience in water resources management in Africa and provided a valuable contribution in the assessment of the model and scenario development.