Gap analysis of Thailand’s national climate change risk assessment

Thailand is a middle-income country with a population of 67 million people, most of whom live in rural areas. Climate change impacts, in particular the increase in temperature and variable precipitation, are set to negatively impact the national infrastructure, agricultural livelihoods and other socioeconomic conditions. Thailand is also one of the countries most affected in the world by natural disasters. In spite of this pronounced vulnerability, a comprehensive national coping strategy for climate change risks has yet to be put into place.

In light of these vulnerabilities, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) is collaborating with the Thai Office of Natural Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning (ONEP) to develop and implement a "Risk-based National Adaptation Plan" (Risk-NAP). As a primary step, a Climate Change Risk Analysis (CCRA) was undertaken on behalf of ONEP. The assessment focused on six relevant sectors of the Thai National Climate Change Master Plan: agriculture, food security, natural resources, water, human settlement & security, and tourism and health.

adelphi had been commissioned by GIZ to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the CCRA and to derive recommendations for improvement. This included developing criteria for a successful national vulnerability analysis based on current international guidelines and first-hand experience, creating a desktop analysis and conducting interviews with key partners and stakeholders involved in this development process. Furthermore, adelphi formulated recommendations for replicating the analysis for monitoring purposes and also developed recommendations on how to conduct similar subnational assessments in sectors or regions that are particularly affected. The most important and useful initiative derived from the Gap Analysis was the development of impact chains to analyse deeper the vulnerability of the six relevant sectors. The assessment was based on the Vulnerability Sourcebook, the first comprehensive guidebook developed for conducting standardised vulnerability analyses, developed by adelphi and the European Academy of Bozen (EURAC).