Exploring migration, habitability and climate change in the future – scenarios for Africa and Asia

The interplay of climate, migration, and socioeconomic factors

The videos feature different characters living in fragile contexts in various African and Asian countries, and the stories of how their lives develop in the years up to 2030 and 2050. They show how, as the impacts of climate change intensify, those on the frontlines are using a variety of strategies to adapt and survive, including migration. 

How effective these strategies are will depend not just on the climate impacts themselves – such as increasing rainfall variability, drought or flooding – but also on a wide variety of social, political, economic, environmental and demographic factors. These may include, for instance, access to education, training, and alternative livelihoods, the strength of social protections and support networks, and the availability of capital, including from remittances sent by family working elsewhere. Additionally, the effectiveness of early warning systems and emergency response and recovery measures in the case of disasters also play a crucial role. 

The stories also show that decisions to migrate are not taken lightly – while they may open up opportunities for migrants and their families and communities, there are also significant costs to consider.The options, opportunities, and costs for each person also vary according to more individual characteristics, including their gender, age and place in the household.

Exploring climate crisis scenarios: preparedness and resilience in action

These stories explore the concept of habitability through two different types of scenarios developed by the adelphi research team. 

The first set of stories are based on crisis response scenarios that revolve around a major climate impact in the year 2030. We see how prepared each of our storytellers was for such an event and how it affects their lives, livelihood and the habitability of where they live in the aftermath.

Envisioning climate-resilient societies and migration dynamics in 2050

The second set of stories is derived from aspirational scenarios for the year 2050. The scenarios are based on the premise that the impacts of climate crisis are continuing to unfold, but that social, economic and political conditions have evolved to facilitate robust adaptation measures, including migration as an effective strategy to cope with and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Our storytellers explain how they were able to overcome the climate-related economic and social challenges that they faced in the early 2020s thanks to supportive policies and programmes.

The narratives vividly illustrate the contrasting outcomes between the two scenarios. All videos can be seen on this playlist.