CASCADES: Helping European Societies Address Cascading Climate Risks from outside Europe

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Adrien Detges

Senior Advisor

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Europe is strongly linked to the rest of the world via trade, value chains, business operations and financial investment, as well as its security, development and diplomatic interests. It is thereby also linked to risks of climate change to countries, economies and peoples beyond Europe. How might this risks cascade into Europe and what are possible effects? The ultimate goal of this project is the design of a European policy framework to address these risks.

While direct climate change risks in Europe are relatively well-studied, less is known about how climate impacts beyond the continent might trigger risk cascades that affect Europe itself. Moreover, it remains unclear what effect such cascading risks will have on existing and future challenges facing European societies – such as water and energy scarcity, socio-political tensions, rising inequality, financial instability, conflicts and changing security threats.

An example of cross-border impacts: drought and food prices

The infographic illustrates impacts of a climate trigger in the two countries Russia and Pakistan resulting in a shortfall of cereals to international markets.

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an infographic showing an example of cross-border impacts: drought and food prices

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The project name CASCADES stands for CAScading Climate risks: towards ADaptive and resilient European Societies – and therewith pinpoints the main objective of the four-year project.

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How do we work towards adaptive and resilient European societies?

In order to identify climate impact and risks, we analysed trade, political and financial channels. The CASCADES team – a consortium of 12 partners – was using state-of-the-art quantitative and qualitative research from different disciplines and stakeholder engagement approaches. The team built on established climate change impact simulations to develop scenarios and inform a wide range of new models.

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Learn more on the methodology on the project website

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CASCADES

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Bridging the gulf between complex science and everyday decision making

One tool to engage stakeholders and to bridge the gap between science and decision making are interactive policy simulations. Their goal is to integrate research generated by partners, present results to stakeholders and to gather their input in order to develop an effective and efficient science-policy interface.

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Cascading Climate Impacts Simulation

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Reflections on the simulation

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Cascading climate impacts: a new factor in European policy-making

In order to limit human suffering and reduce future costs, risks reduction and timely adaptation are key.

To date, cross-border and cascading climatic impacts have taken governments and business by surprise.

Adaptation actions may focus on reducing the transmitted effects, on diminishing the transmission or on alleviating the initial impacts – for example through international cooperation to build resilience in high-risk regions. However, it is important that adaptation actions are not limited to “climate policies”, but are rather integrated into a wider policy mix, including trade, finance, development emergency responses and security. Full engagement with all these areas of expertise and decision-making will be needed – that’s what the CASCADES team is working towards by supporting the development of a coherent European policy framework.

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Cascading climate impacts: a new factor in European policy-making

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Access the policy brief

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