A Conceptual Model of Climate Change and Human Mobility Interactions

The links between climate change, migration and habitability are complex and multi-faceted. This conceptual model of climate change and human mobility interactions summarises relevant cause-effect relations between climate change, human mobility, as well as a number of intervening variables that moderate the relationship between them. 

These social, political, economic, technological, legal, and behavioural variables are of particular importance for scenario planning, and guided the scenario planning exercise undertaken by the adelphi research team as part of the HABITABLE project. On the one hand, they served as building blocks and dimensions along which our scenarios were differentiated. For example, the scenarios focused on the impact of climate change on people of varying ages, genders and socio-economic circumstances. On the other hand, they represent sensible targets for policy interventions aiming at increasing people’s resilience in situ and while/after moving. For example, the subsequent scenarios showed policies could aim at promoting education and access to livelihoods that are less climate-sensitive.

To explore the resulting scenario narratives developed for the HABITABLE project, please see:

• the series of seven animated videos 
• the policy brief In search of a habitable future. Scenario narratives to explore future habitability and mobility in climate-vulnerable areas of Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mail and Thailand.