Climate change and security: Scenarios for the South Caucasus

The consequences of climate change are beginning to make themselves felt and are broadening in their scope. Preventive measures and early action are necessary to avoid negative impacts. However, there is only limited knowledge of actual impacts, making responses difficult to plan. Setting out possible scenarios may support decision-making by highlighting the potential range of risks and the mitigating actions which can be taken against them.

The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) therefore organised a scenario development workshop in the South Caucasus to identify potential security implications of climate change in the region. adelphi supported the OSCE in preparing the workshop by developing a background paper and also helped in drawing up concepts for the workshop exercises. These activities were part of a larger project jointly implemented by the OSCE and the European Environment Agency. The aim of the larger project was to generate policy recommendations for the respective member states with a view to mitigating the worst consequences of climate change.